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MSNBC Blogger: Not Sure PS3 "Will Survive Another Year"
July 2, 2009 | 5:30 PM PST

by: Jeff Grubb

MSNBC's business blogger, Anders Bylund -- known as the Motley Fool -- posted a new blog this morning titled "Will Activision Kill Sony?" Bylund took little time to reach a doom and gloom scenario for Sony:

The Sony Playstation 3 is starting to look shaky in an otherwise brilliant video game market. I'm not sure the console will survive another year.


Bylund's reasoning is a familiar one that is taken to the extreme. He argues that the economy and the high price of the PS3 console is hurting potential sales and this is frustrating the third parties. Activision in particular, whose CEO Bobby Kotick has spoken out on this subject.

Unless the PS3 finds some way to entice more consumers to pay up for its classy but expensive wares, Kotick might take Guitar Hero, Tony Hawk, Call Of Duty, and a host of other crowd-pleasing franchises -- and go home. And if the biggest producer can't afford to make PS3 titles, the smaller players could soon follow suit. By the time Take-Two Interactive announces an Xbox-only Grand Theft Auto title, it'll be too late.


Gamers will surely find flaws in this argument, but that may not be the point. If mainstream outlets like MSNBC start declaring the perception that the PS3 is too expensive to succeed, it could have an irreversibly damaging effect on the Playstation's image.

Bylund's one suggestion to Sony is an echo of the most popular rumor surrounding the Playstation brand:

The time to act is now, Sony. Give me cheaper systems or give me death. For your sake, I hope that the rumors of a cheaper PS3 Slim model are correct.


Who doesn't want a price drop for the PS3? The PS3s greatest barrier to entry can not be denied, but it takes a fundamental lack of understanding to propose that the PS3 will not be able to survive another year.

What makes this comical is that it comes on the heels of software analyst superstar Michael Pachter predicting that the PS3 will overtake the 360 by 2015. If we are counting, 2015 is several years in the future, way more than one.

One of the problems is that Bylund -- and many others in a similar position to him -- lack an understanding of the videogame marketplace. It would take a literal catastrophe for Sony to pull the PS3 off of the market. The systems would have to start coming alive and eating kittens before we would even begin to hear rumblings to that effect.

Even if Activision does stop making games for the PS3 -- I will eat MY kitten if they do -- it won't be enough to "kill" the PS3. To Bylund it was as simple as Activision is the biggest third party, therefore PS3 - Activision = failure. EA stopped fully supporting Nintendo consoles in the past and Nintendo shrugged it off. Nintendo survived for years serving only their most loyal customers. Sony will go it alone if they have to.

But, the point is that perceptions stick to systems and are nearly impossible to shed once they are spread wide enough. Ask most people which system was more powerful the Gamecube or the Playstation 2 and you are likely to receive an incorrect answer.

What happens when people in the financial news begin believing absurd things like the PS3 is something that won't be on shelves next year. Gamers are over this. We know that the PS3 got off to a slow start, but most of us tend to believe Pachter's prediction that the PS3 will outsell the 360 globally by 2015.

And Bobby Kotick -- this is my final problem with Bylund -- he lacks the understanding to realize how hypocritical Bobby Kotick is in his criticisms of Sony. He is threatening Sony because their system is too expensive, preventing many people from upgrading, which would make it possible for those people to buy Activision's games. Yet, there are already 40 million people with either an Xbox 360 or PS3 who can not afford to buy all of Activision's games because they are too expensive. That goes without mentioning his plans for a dozen different Guitar Hero SKUs when simply making the music DLC would suffice. As gamers, who likely already own a system capable of playing Kotick's games, should we not expect him to lower their prices. I would like him to lead by example.

Of course, Bylund does have a point, everyone who has said that Sony needs to lower the price is right. They had to lower the price at E3, but did not. At this point Sony has to know that they have to lower the price, but we need to be talking about why they are not lowering the price and not start screaming that Sony's sky is falling. What is going on inside Sony that is taking them so long to figure out how to sell their system? That is another blog... and it should have been The Motley Fool's.

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December 16, 2009
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